This study examines how electoral rules influence government composition in established democracies.
- Electoral Systems: Investigates majoritarian versus proportional representation (PR) systems and their impact on governing parties. The finding is clear: countries with PR systems more often elect conservative governments than those using majoritarian rules.
- Mechanisms at Play: Explores three potential reasons for this pattern:
- Voting Behavior Differences: Hypothesizes that middle-class voters anticipate redistributive policies and are more likely to vote for right-wing parties under majoritarian systems.
- Geographic Vote Biasing: Proposes that the regional distribution of votes can disadvantage left-leaning parties in translating votes into seats due to large urban district margins.
- Party Fragmentation Effects: Suggests that more fragmentation among right-wing parties under PR makes it less likely for a single conservative party to gain formateur status.
- Hypotheses Tested: Assesses these hypotheses across the entire post-war period in established democracies.
- Results:
- The first two explanations hold true: majoritarian systems bias against left parties through vote anticipation and geographic effects.
- Party fragmentation, however, does not co-vary as strongly with electoral rules as expected.
This confirms a conservative lean in majoritarian systems while highlighting the complexity of PR impacts.
