New democracies often face ethnic violence, but conventional explanations focus on established democracies. This study uses district-level data from Indonesia (1990-2005) to show that ethnic riots occur where elections are uncompetitive and districts are ethnically divided.
Findings: Riot likelihood peaks after the first democratic election if it's uncompetitive, then drops when competition increases or opposition wins.
Mechanism: Uncompetitive elections send a signal of entrenched power and local exclusion.
Why It Matters: This highlights how political transition dynamics differ from those in mature democracies, offering insights into managing ethnic tensions during democratic change. Key takeaways include:
- Riot occurrence tied to uncompetitiveness in Indonesia's first elections.
- Low electoral competition as a primary trigger for interethnic violence.
- Increased competition reduces riot incidence significantly.
