This study investigates the relationship between media coverage and public support for the populist right-wing UK Independence Party (UKIP) in the United Kingdom's first-past-the-post electoral system. Using monthly aggregate time-series data from January 2004 to April 2017, we apply vector autoregression analysis.
Our findings indicate that media coverage precedes increases in public support for UKIP, challenging conventional wisdom about populist parties' influence on media agendas. While periods of declining support are followed by heightened media attention, the data does not show significant reverse causality—support driving further media focus.
Key Insights:
• Media plays a causal role in boosting UKIP popularity despite institutional constraints
• The relationship appears stable across multiple time periods during party development
• This effect persists even after previous support levels are considered
This research demonstrates that populist parties can gain traction through media effects, with important implications for understanding political dynamics and media regulation debates.
| Does Media Coverage Drive Public Support for UKIP or Does Public Support for UKIP Drive Media Coverage? was authored by Justin Murphy and Daniel Devine. It was published by Cambridge in BJPS in 2020. |
