Study Significance
The study tests whether media attention can increase public support for a populist right-wing party in the United Kingdom, a first-past-the-post system where such media-driven gains are thought to be less likely, making it a valuable case for understanding media effects in constrained electoral systems.
Data and Measurement
The authors use monthly aggregate time-series data spanning January 2004 to April 2017; media coverage is measured with their compiled coverage variables and public support is measured using aggregated polling data, all assembled in the provided ukip_media dataset.
Comparison of Temporal Dynamics
The analysis compares the time-ordered relationship between monthly media coverage and monthly measures of public support using vector autoregression to assess whether changes in coverage precede changes in support or vice versa.
Main Findings
Vector autoregression results are consistent with media coverage driving subsequent increases in UKIP public support, while there is no comparable evidence that public support drives media coverage.
Interpretation and Implications
The findings suggest media attention can have a substantively non-trivial causal role in boosting support for right-wing populist parties even within an institutional context (first-past-the-post) thought less conducive to such effects, which bears on UK media-regulation and broader democratic debates.
