This article asks whether a democratic middle power — Germany — uses high‑level visits to help democratic durability in other countries during periods of domestic instability. Using a novel dataset of German chancellor visits from 1991–2023, the authors assess whether Germany’s visits are more likely when host countries face internal turbulence and whether regime type and party politics shape that responsiveness.
Key data: novel visit dataset (1991–2023) Focus: visits as soft power Party variation: CDU-driven responsiveness
Data and methods
The authors assemble a new dataset of German Chancellor visits covering 1991–2023 and analyze visit likelihood with probit models. The abstract indicates the analysis conditions on host regime type (democracy vs autocracy) and on measures of domestic instability; it also examines variation across German governing parties and a temporal shift after 2013.
Main findings
According to the abstract, domestic instability operates as a strategic filter for engagement: instability raises the probability of a visit when the host is a democracy but reduces it when the host is an autocracy. The authors report a partisan asymmetry, with responsiveness concentrated under Christian Democratic Union (CDU) governments and strengthened after Germany’s post‑2013 shift toward greater assertiveness.
- Visits are more likely for democracies experiencing instability (per probit estimates cited).
- Instability in autocracies appears to deter visits.
Interpretation and scope
The abstract frames these results as evidence that Germany can deploy “symbolic capital” via visits to validate democratic resilience, and it situates the finding as challenging parts of the civilian‑power narrative. The brief summarizes the authors’ claims without adding causal language or numbers beyond what the abstract provides.
