This article tests whether the International Criminal Court (ICC) and related prosecutorial actions prevent conflict-related sexual violence by government forces in intrastate armed conflicts. Using the Sexual Violence in Armed Conflict (SVAC) dataset to analyze cases from 1989–2018, the authors compare outcomes across settings with ICC jurisdiction, ICC interventions, and cross-case ICC actions to assess whether prosecutions operate as a preventive strategy. The central contribution is an empirical test of claims that ICC activity reduces sexual violence, reporting qualified null and counterintuitive associations rather than clear deterrent effects.
International Criminal Court studied Uses SVAC dataset Finds no clear deterrent effect
Data and methods
The study analyzes incidents of sexual violence by government forces in intrastate conflicts over 1989–2018 using the Sexual Violence in Armed Conflict (SVAC) dataset. The authors evaluate three forms of ICC-related exposure—jurisdiction, direct interventions, and cross-case actions—against measures of sexual violence. The abstract does not list specific estimation techniques; it presents results from cross-case empirical analyses using the SVAC measures.
Main findings
The authors report that ICC jurisdiction and cross-case ICC actions show negligible effects on sexual violence by government forces in the studied intrastate conflicts. They also report that ICC interventions are associated with increased sexual violence by government forces in these settings. The abstract frames these results as contrary to optimistic claims about prosecutions’ preventive power and notes that alternative, potentially costlier, interventions may be required for prevention.
- ICC jurisdiction and cross-case actions: negligible association with government sexual violence.
- ICC interventions: associated with increases in government sexual violence in the analyzed cases.
