This paper asks whether the post–Cold War era is best described by Huntington’s ‘‘waves and ebbs’’ alternation of democratization and autocratization, or by a different dynamic. The author argues for a period of ‘‘regime convergence’’ in which both democracies and autocracies tend to shift toward hybrid regime forms, and presents empirical evidence covering 1990–2023 to assess that claim.
Bold claim: transitions to hybrid regimes across 1990–2023 exceeded transitions in other directions.
Scope: post–Cold War period (1990–2023) and regime change patterns.
Data and methods
The abstract reports an empirical analysis spanning 1990–2023 that compares directions of regime transitions, with a focus on moves toward hybrid regimes rather than pure democratization or autocratization. The specific data sources, coding rules, and statistical techniques are not detailed in the abstract and are therefore not described here.
Main findings
According to the abstract, transitions to hybrid regimes between 1990 and 2023 "significantly exceeded transitions in other directions," which the author interprets as evidence that hybridization is an important common pathway for both democracies and autocracies during the period. The argument reframes post–Cold War change as convergence toward hybridity rather than alternating waves of democracy and authoritarianism.
- The paper reframes the common ‘‘waves and ebbs’’ model as potentially less descriptive of the post–Cold War era than a convergence process.
- The core empirical finding reported is a statistically supported excess of transitions toward hybrid regimes in the 1990–2023 period.
What the paper encourages next
The author calls for renewed scholarly attention to hybridization as a distinct phenomenon from democratization and autocratization, implying that theory and measurement should more directly address hybrid regime dynamics moving forward.
