This paper asks whether a high-profile focusing event — the murder of George Floyd — changed citizens’ political behavior by bringing new prospective voters into the system. Using nationwide voter file data for the United States, the authors apply a regression discontinuity in time design and provide replication code for their analysis. They focus on changes in new voter registrations around the event and examine how effects vary across subgroups.
Nationwide voter-file data Regression discontinuity in time Changes in new voter registrations
Data and methods
The study uses nationwide voter file data from the United States and leverages a regression discontinuity in time research design to estimate changes in registration immediately following Floyd’s murder. The abstract indicates the authors provide replication code alongside the analysis.
Main findings
According to the abstract, Floyd’s murder was associated with a noticeable increase in voter registration. The authors report that increases occurred across many individual subgroups, with registrations rising among people from previously marginalized backgrounds and also among politically advantaged groups; the abstract emphasizes this simultaneous mobilization and counter-mobilization.
- Effects are described as present across multiple subgroups.
- The concurrent increases among advantaged and marginalized groups are said to have mitigated impacts on partisan balance.
