Scholars often assume informal workers in Latin America vote less and tilt rightward, but prior empirical results vary. This article synthesizes the quantitative evidence by conducting meta-analyses on the universe of previous studies that link labor informality to voting outcomes, estimating average effects for turnout and vote choice and exploring conditions that modify those effects.
Meta-analysis of existing quantitative studies Turnout gap: ~4–7 percentage points Leftward vote tendency is smaller
Data and methods
The authors compile the universe of prior quantitative studies on informality and the vote in Latin America and subject those estimates to meta-analysis and meta-regression. The abstract reports pooled effect-size estimates for turnout and for vote choice and examines heterogeneity across country contexts, including measures of organized professional activity among informal workers.
Main findings
Across studies, informal workers are reported to be less likely to vote than formal workers, with a pooled effect described as small—about four to seven percentage points. Meta-analysis results also indicate informal workers are slightly more likely to vote for the left than the right, although that effect is even smaller than the turnout difference. Meta-regression evidence in the article points to smaller turnout gaps in countries where informal workers show higher levels of organized professional activity.
- Informal workers vote at lower rates than formal workers (small average gap).
- Informality is associated with a modestly greater propensity to vote for the left, but the effect size is very small.
- Contexts with stronger organized activity among informal workers show reduced turnout gaps.
