British elections from 1964 to 2010 saw changes in competitiveness tied to turnout.
Data & Methods
Analysis used the British Election Study dataset (1964–2010) and cross-classified multilevel models to separate effects of individual characteristics, contextual factors, election-specific trends, and generational differences.
Key Findings
* Elections perceived as closer due to recent seat margins or constituency results increased voting rates overall.
* Voters reaching young adulthood after periods of low competitiveness were significantly less likely to vote later in life.
Real-World Significance
This suggests that the actual experience with electoral competition, particularly during formative years, impacts long-term participation patterns for generations. The analysis highlights how institutional-level shifts (like increasing seat margins) can create enduring effects on citizens' voting behavior.
| Electoral Competitiveness and Turnout in British Elections, 1964-2010 was authored by Jack Vowles, Gabriel Katz and Daniel Stevens. It was published by Cambridge in PSR&M in 2017. |
