This study asks whether mass mobilization’s ability to prompt transitions to democracy has been constant over time, and presents replication data and formal statistical models that examine how that effectiveness varied from 1900–2019. Using those models the authors report pronounced temporal heterogeneity in mobilization’s effect on democratization, with a positive significant association in a limited historical window but little or no detectable impact outside it.
Mass mobilization as a predictor, Temporal heterogeneity in effects, Replicated statistical models
Data and methods
The authors analyze replication data linked to the article and apply formal statistical models to assess mobilization’s association with democratic transitions across 1900–2019. The abstract indicates the analysis examines trends over time and compares mobilization’s relationship with democratization to other outcomes such as leader turnover and coup attempts.
Main findings
The replication results described in the abstract show that mobilization’s effect on democratic transitions is not time-invariant: "mobilization has a positive and significant effect on democratic transitions from the early 1980s to the mid-2010s, but no detectable impact before or after." The authors also report that "Leader turnover and coup attempts have been more likely to follow mobilization up to the Arab Spring," and that trends in common structural conditions do not align with these temporal patterns.
- Mobilization mattered for democratization chiefly from the early 1980s through the mid-2010s.
- Before and after that window, the abstract reports no detectable impact on transitions to democracy.
