Does agreement with the specific electoral procedures used affect whether voters trust election outcomes? Using public opinion data from 2008–2024 and a large pre-2024 election survey experiment, the author examines whether procedural agreement explains variation in confidence beyond the well-known effects of partisan control and whether a voter’s preferred candidate won. The study focuses on procedural polarization in state election laws and assesses observational and experimental evidence about how voters respond when results are produced under procedures they oppose.
Data and methods
The analysis draws on repeated public opinion and survey data spanning 2008–2024 and a large-scale survey experiment conducted prior to the 2024 election. The author combines observational analyses of trends in opinion with experimental manipulation of procedures to estimate whether disapproval of specific election rules reduces expressed confidence in results.
Main findings
Both observational and experimental analyses reported in the abstract indicate that voters are less likely to express confidence in election results when those results are produced using procedures they oppose. The effects are especially pronounced for voter identification laws and among Republicans and independents, according to the abstract. The author frames these patterns as a potential consequence of increasing procedural divergence across states.
Keywords quick-scan: survey experiment, public opinion, voter identification laws, Republican Party
- Uses long-run public opinion series and a large pre-2024 survey experiment.
- Finds consistent observational and experimental evidence that disagreement with procedures lowers electoral confidence.
- Effects particularly notable for voter ID laws and for Republicans and independents.
