Does Residential Sorting Explain Geographic Polarization?
This study investigates whether geographic polarization—a strong correlation between political preferences and population density at national, state, and metropolitan scales—is driven by voters actively sorting themselves based on partisan neighbors. Using new voter registration data from records analysis, we conduct a simulation study to test the role of residential mobility.
📊 Data & Methods
Based on descriptive representation concepts, we analyze how neighborhood attributes covary with political preferences over time through network analysis and regression modeling.
⚠️ Key Findings
Our results show voters moving based on non-political factors that happen to align with partisan distributions:
- Partisan bias in movement choices is estimated at only ~20%
- Simulations reveal this bias (~5-10%) would not sustain observed geographic polarization levels.
🏛️ Political Implications
This finding suggests political preferences may influence where people live more than their housing decisions determining political leanings. The results have implications for theories of descriptive representation and residential sorting as mechanisms driving political divides.
