This paper examines how state-level actors can drive partisan change.
Data & Methods
Researchers analyzed time series data from the Field Poll (California), Texas Poll (Texas), and Gallup.
They employed a difference-in-differences approach to track party ID shifts among key demographic groups in California versus Texas before and after pivotal gubernatorial campaigns, specifically focusing on California's Proposition 187.
Key Findings
Wilson’s explicit embrace of restrictive immigration policies triggered a significant political shift:
- In California: Hispanics moved toward the Democratic Party by approximately 7.1 percentage points long-term.
- This state-level effect appeared substantial, exceeding changes attributable to national factors during that period.
Texas saw no comparable dramatic shift from Bush's stance on related issues at the time.
Why It Matters
The findings challenge assumptions about partisan alignment being solely driven by national trends.
They demonstrate how controversial actions by sitting governors can catalyze durable political realignment within their states, particularly impacting immigrant-origin groups.
