Latino Voters Don't Deter Democrats, But Increase GOP Restrictions on Immigration

Introduction

Does a growing Latino population change how state legislators vote on immigration policy? We find that it depends entirely on party.

Our theory suggests minority representation is influenced by both their numbers and the representative's political alignment. Applying this to state legislative voting shows:

• Democratic Legislators: Unlikely to shift toward restrictive immigration policies regardless of Latino district share.
• Republican Legislators: Increasingly likely to vote restrictively as Latinos become a larger part of their constituency

Data & Methods

Analyzing state legislative votes on immigration bills using voter demographic data and explicit racial threat arguments from campaigns across the country reveals partisan divergence in how they respond to minority presence.

Our findings highlight why political scientists must account for party differences when examining representation. Latino voters appear politically irrelevant to Democratic legislators but strategically relevant to Republicans.