This paper investigates whether presidents are held accountable for economic conditions during their term, examining how approval judgments evolve over time. Using opinion polls covering hundreds of presidencies, the analysis finds that while the economy significantly influences voter evaluations in a president's first year, its impact grows stronger by the second year and disappears entirely after that. Similar results emerge from studies on governor approval rates and state economic conditions. Furthermore, an original survey experiment designed to control for varying gubernatorial tenures following the 2018 elections confirms these patterns across different contexts.
These findings prompt important questions about voter competence in retrospective voting or potentially highlight leaders' incentives – spreading effort over later years might be one such strategy.
