Armed conflict significantly alters economic governance and investment patterns, particularly in resource-rich countries.
The Problem: Economic crises often intensify national security concerns, potentially reshaping priorities for investors. This paper examines how armed conflicts impact the mining sector's attractiveness to international capital during geopolitical instability.
New Data & Methods: We analyze global data from 2015-2023 using quantitative analysis and multilevel modeling techniques.
Key Findings: Contrary to conventional expectations, we find that conflict regions attract more investment in certain mineral resources due to government resource extraction initiatives and geopolitical competition for these strategic assets. This unexpected trend holds especially true during economic crises when short-term gains become prioritized over long-term stability concerns.
Implications: These findings suggest policymakers must carefully consider how security crises could increase pressure on natural resource governance, potentially creating new vulnerabilities in seemingly stable sectors.
