This note addresses scholarly disagreement over why oil wealth impedes democracy.
It evaluates the foundational rentier state theory, proposing that domestic gasoline subsidies—measured in dollars per capita—significantly reduce democratization likelihood by acting as a substitute for societal demands to be heard.
New Measure Developed: A novel metric quantifying fuel subsidy generosity based on dollar-per-capita spending.
Global Dataset Used: Analyzes 1990–2014 data across nations.
Regression Analysis Findings: Fuel subsidies have a substantial impact comparable to economic growth rates in reducing democratization odds.
Methodological Contribution: Incorporating fuel subsidy measures helps explain the autocratic effect attributed to oil income.
Broader Significance: This analysis demonstrates how specific energy subsidy data can illuminate wider political economy questions.
