Why Combining Polls, Markets, Experts & Models Boosted 2012 Election Predictions

What is the PollyVote?

The PollyVote project, a multi-method forecasting platform combining polls, prediction markets, expert judgment, political economy models and index models, delivered remarkably accurate predictions for the popular vote outcome of the US presidential election in 2012.

Key Findings

• It significantly outperformed individual methods like traditional polling alone or standard aggregated poll averages.
• The combined approach surpassed even sophisticated prediction platforms such as FiveThirtyEight.com.
• Accuracy gains were especially pronounced early in the campaign when uncertainty was highest.

Why This Matters

This study demonstrates that forecast combination—integrating diverse predictive inputs—is a powerful strategy for enhancing election forecasting accuracy, particularly during periods of high electoral uncertainty.