What is the PollyVote?
The PollyVote project, a multi-method forecasting platform combining polls, prediction markets, expert judgment, political economy models and index models, delivered remarkably accurate predictions for the popular vote outcome of the US presidential election in 2012.
### Key Findings
* It significantly outperformed individual methods like traditional polling alone or standard aggregated poll averages.
* The combined approach surpassed even sophisticated prediction platforms such as FiveThirtyEight.com.
* Accuracy gains were especially pronounced early in the campaign when uncertainty was highest.
### Why This Matters
This study demonstrates that forecast combination—integrating diverse predictive inputs—is a powerful strategy for enhancing election forecasting accuracy, particularly during periods of high electoral uncertainty.
| Accuracy of Combined Forecasts for the 2012 Presidential Election: The PollyVote was authored by Andreas Graefe, J. Scott Armstrong, Randall J. Jones, Jr. and Alfred G. Cuzan. It was published by Cambridge in PS in 2014. |
