Why Did Trump Win Despite Fraternal Order's Previous Romney Rejection?
Conventional explanations for Donald Trump’s surprising electoral victory often point to his idiosyncratic campaign style and media celebrity, overlooking the crucial role of organized support. But new research reveals that the influence of conservative political groups extends beyond these factors.
Key Findings
- The Fraternal Order of Police (FOP), despite rejecting Mitt Romney four years prior, significantly influenced voter turnout for Trump in 2016.
- Using a difference-in-differences methodology, researchers found that FOP lodge density correlated with substantial shifts in votes favoring Trump.
- This indicates the enduring power of established organizational networks to shape political outcomes even when their stance appears contrary to typical voting patterns.
