Civilian victimization in conventional civil wars and conflicts with insurgencies is driven by the vulnerability of incumbent forces during shifting front lines. This vulnerability stems from informational uncertainty and unstable supply chains, increasing their exposure to risks.
New Data on WWII Civilian Harm:
- Examines original subnational data (1943–1945) in Italy using difference-in-differences analyses;
- Incorporates qualitative evidence alongside quantitative findings.
The Core Argument: Incumbents' Strategic Use of Vulnerability
The authors argue that when conventional forces face shifting front lines, their vulnerability—due to informational and logistical challenges—leads them to strategically increase civilian victimization. This occurs because:
- Limited information on insurgents limits effective targeting;
- Uncertain front movements heighten fears of information leaks;
- Logistics constraints fuel efforts to disrupt enemy supply chains.
Why It Matters
The findings provide a clear causal mechanism for understanding how conventional forces' operational challenges can paradoxically lead them toward more deliberate civilian harm. This insight helps explain patterns observed not only during WWII but also in other contexts with shifting battlefronts.
