Elected officials overestimate their prospects but underestimate risks

This study investigates how political confidence influences decision-making.

Data & Methods: Experimental survey conducted with sitting elected officials in the United States and selected European nations, contrasting carefully controlled conditions against real-world scenarios.

Key Findings:

• High levels of descriptive representation confidence correlated strongly with willingness to engage in policy risks rated as moderate or severe by impartial observers.
• Prospect theory models effectively predicted these decision patterns across diverse political contexts.
• Overconfident officials demonstrated significantly lower sensitivity to negative consequences compared to their less confident peers.

Why It Matters:

These findings illuminate how psychological biases shape real-world governance, potentially contributing to policy failures and fiscal mismanagement when leaders underestimate the costs of ambitious undertakings.