This study examines how income changes affected voter turnout across different socioeconomic groups in Northern Italy during the economic crisis following the Great Recession.
Using unique administrative data from a large northern Italian municipality, we matched ten years of individual tax records with voter rolls. This allowed us to track both overall levels and within-individual changes over time.
Our findings highlight three key points:
1️⃣ Income and turnout levels dropped disproportionately among relatively poor citizens during the Great Recession.
2️⃣ Changes in income consistently influenced voting behavior, though this effect was modest on average due to diminishing returns. However, it proved significantly consequential for lower-income voters.
3️⃣ The decline specifically affected economically insecure voters, worsening pre-existing turnout inequalities and suggesting potential reciprocal reinforcement between income inequality and political participation.
We situate these findings within Italy's strong civic traditions and generally low barriers to voting. These results have important implications for theories concerning descriptive representation and the functioning of unequal democracies.
| Making Unequal Democracy Work? The Effects of Income on Voter Turnout in Northern Italy was authored by Jerome Schafer, Enrico Cantoni, Giorgio Bellettini and Carlotta Berti Ceroni. It was published by Wiley in AJPS in 2022. |
