This study investigates how terror attacks impact voting behavior across U.S. elections from 1970 to 2016.
Data & Methods: We analyze an exhaustive dataset of terrorist incidents and compare election outcomes in targeted counties versus unaffected ones, using a rigorous identification approach that exploits the random success/failure of attacks.
Key Findings: Contrary to popular belief, successful terror attacks do not significantly sway presidential or non-presidential elections. However, when relying on naive comparison groups (counties never attacked), we observe substantial overestimation effects.
Why It Matters: This nuanced analysis suggests terrorism's perceived electoral impact may stem from flawed research methods rather than actual influence.
Our results indicate that conventional wisdom about terror attacks affecting votes might be overstated.
