Voter fraud beliefs shape views on electoral integrity versus accessibility. This study estimates the actual prevalence of double voting in 2012 U.S. presidential elections.
Methodology & Findings
Our approach analyzes voter records to estimate how many individuals cast multiple ballots during the election cycle:
* Examined overall patterns across all states
* Found that approximately one in 4,000 voters (about 90,000 individuals) may have voted twice nationwide
However, an audit indicates potential underreporting errors in electronic records could inflate this estimate.
Using Social Security Numbers
To refine estimates, we analyzed data from states sharing social security numbers. This subset allows for more precise identification of potentially double-voting voters:
* Leveraged unique identifier data to pinpoint individuals with matching names and birthdates across different registration dates
* Revealed that specific policy interventions might incidentally reduce legitimate voting opportunities.
| One Person, One Vote: Estimating the Prevalence of Double Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections was authored by Sharad Goel, Marc Meredith, Michael Morse, David Rothschild and Houshmand Shirani-Mehr. It was published by Cambridge in APSR in 2020. |
