Outside powers frequently intervene in other countries' elections, sometimes favoring the democratic process and at other times backing specific candidates. However, contrary to common belief, they often pursue both strategies simultaneously.
Bias Model Explained:** Our formal model shows that outside actors invest resources in particular candidates because they care about policy differences between contenders.
They also support electoral integrity due to liberalism concerns and geopolitical interests—
an intervention strategy aimed at strengthening the overall democratic process.
But here's a twist: our analysis reveals liberal powers might even dampen their commitment to electoral fairness if it conflicts with their preferred candidate.
Election Wars:** This new term describes when two outside powers simultaneously intervene on opposing sides of an election—a direct clash over influence.
Our findings demonstrate this isn't just theory—it's happening in real world elections.
Dataset & Evidence:** We test these predictions using a novel dataset that tracks electoral interventions across multiple nations, providing empirical support for our model.
