Elite polarization has long been a political science puzzle, but why do American politicians hold misperceptions of public opinion? This study investigates perceptions among 3,765 state legislative politicians regarding nine key issues. Analysis reveals an unexpected partisan difference: while both parties show conservative asymmetry in representation breakdowns, Republican politicians significantly overestimate their constituents' support for conservative policies. These findings are consistent across districts and states when examining descriptive representation gaps.
📊 Data & Methods: Original surveys of 3,765 state legislators conducted in 2012-2014 provide empirical evidence on misperceptions.
🔍 Key Findings: Republican elites overestimate conservative public support. Citizen contact patterns explain this bias in who reaches out to politicians.
📚 Significance: This novel force impacts election outcomes and legislative decision-making, revealing a systematic gap between elite perception and constituent reality.
