This paper explores how circuit court judges strategically modify their behavior to increase chances of promotion to the Supreme Court.
Methodology: Comparing judicial actions during vacancy periods with those outside these windows, focusing specifically on 'contender' judges most likely to be elevated.
Data & Findings: Statistical analysis reveals that contender judges shift toward aligning with presidential preferences more often when vacancies occur—and they also show increased rulings favorable to the U.S. government and higher dissent rates during this time. Non-contender judges do not demonstrate these changes.
Significance: The results provide empirical backing for theories of audience adaptation among federal judges, suggesting career advancement as a key motivator in judicial decision-making; it opens new lines of inquiry into how external audiences might influence court behavior.
