How Authoritarian Hong Kong Uses Redistricting to Manage Election Risks

Hong Kong's electoral system demonstrates how autocratic governments can manipulate district boundaries without outright fraud. This analysis examines residential building-level redistricting data, revealing a systematic partisan bias against opposition constituencies.

Methodology: Researchers analyzed detailed boundary change records across Hong Kong districts to quantify manipulation patterns. The findings highlight several key aspects:

• Bias Direction: Opposition areas show significantly higher likelihood of being redrawn compared to ruling party neighborhoods.
• Incumbent Persistence: Despite redistricting disadvantages, opposition incumbents remain highly motivated to seek re-elections.
• Vote Share Stability: The manipulation doesn't noticeably affect the vote shares of sitting opposition representatives.

This systematic gerrymandering—employing classic packing and cracking techniques—doesn't eliminate electoral competition but strategically reduces chances for opposition parties to win seats. Ultimately, this study shows Hong Kong's redistricting process as a calculated tool for regime survival.