The First World War is often seen as a classic counterexample to the liberal peace concept, given that major belligerents were trading partners. However, this article argues that the war's effect on trade has been underestimated. By introducing an original dataset and analyzing substitution patterns, it demonstrates how states adapted with minimal disruption despite conventional wisdom suggesting catastrophic trade losses.
New Findings:
- Original Dataset: Provides unprecedented detail on pre-war and wartime trade networks.
- Substitution Processes: Shows how countries quickly replaced lost trading partners through redirection or alternative sourcing.
- Minimal Adjustment Costs: Finds that the efficiency loss from adaptation was small relative to other wartime costs, challenging the view of WWI as a unique exception.
Why It Matters:
These findings question long-held assumptions about WWI's economic impact and reveal how trade resilience operated during major conflict. The results highlight complexities in interstate trade networks and suggest that conventional wisdom on this topic may require revision.
