Concerns about refugees and asylum seekers increasing crime rates have driven many countries to reduce refugee admissions. However, these fears are often debated due to ambiguous research on the actual impact.
- The study leverages a natural experiment from the US in January 2017—an Executive Order that halted refugee resettlement—creating an opportunity for causal analysis.
- This abrupt policy change led to the lowest refugee numbers since 1977, with county-level property and violent crime rates showing no discernible effect despite a significant drop of about 66% in resettlements from 2016 to 2017.
