Midterm Surge and Decline: Political Pattern or Statistical Artifact?
The phenomenon of midterm surge and decline has become a staple of American electoral commentary, appearing in nearly every journalistic...
Political Analysis
Presidential Ideal Points in the Age of Trump: A Suggestion for Future Research
One of the more powerful tools in understanding American political institutions is the ideal point estimate — a statistical summary...
Researching the Impact of Gun Acquisition on Public Opinion Post-Mass Shootings
This essay explores a potential research idea aimed at understanding how the legality of a mass shooter’s gun acquisition influences...
Beyond Gerrymandering: Establishing a Compactness Benchmark for Redistricting
Evaluating the compactness of political districts is a crucial yet complex task in the redistricting process. Although a substantial amount...
Replication and Transparency in Empirical Legal Studies
Replication and transparency are fundamental to the advancement of scientific knowledge, including in the field of empirical legal studies. To...
Why Only 50% of Findings Can Be Replicated: Exploratory Thoughts
Thinking about the "replication crisis" in social sciences, I did some back-of-the-envelope type analysis of the probability that a statistically...